Property prices would plummet by hundreds of thousands of dollars in some Aussie suburbs over the next five years while rising in others if recent market trends continued, new data suggests.
PropTrack analysis conducted for News Corp revealed what properties across the country would cost by 2028 if the last five years of price growth were repeated.
The data indicated most of the country was on a path to further price rises, but growth would not occur everywhere and prices were on track to go backwards by up to 18 per cent in some areas – many of them dominated by high-rise apartments.
PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said the analysis did not represent an exact forecast because past performance was not a predictor of future rises, but some of the forces that influenced the market over recent years remain in place.
This included a “patchy” supply of new housing, where new projects were concentrated in only a few areas, while building activity slowed to a standstill in others.
The higher supply of available properties in select areas meant buyers were under less pressure to bid up prices to get the homes they wanted.
PropTrack analysis conducted for News Corp revealed what properties across the country would cost by 2028.
This was particularly the case with new apartments which tended to be built in larger numbers than detached houses, Mr Ryan said.
“Most of the new housing, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, is being built in only a few suburbs and a lot of it is high-rise apartments,” he said.
Mr Ryan added that much of this new development was smaller units aimed at investor buyers – a group no longer as active as they were when many of the developments were first conceived.
“In the past, there has been a disconnect between what developers are building and the people who will ultimately be living in these homes. The suitability of some of this housing could improve,” Mr Ryan said.
It comes as PropTrack’s latest Home Price Index showed a recovery in the housing market following recent interest rate hikes, with national property prices rising over the first four months of 2023.
Much of that growth was attributed to rising migration, housing shortages, ongoing building delays and skyrocketing rents pushing more people into property purchases.
Agents have revealed the “shock” of interest rate hikes over the past year has also begun to subside and many of those who held off buying last year were now actively looking for homes.
There’s a silver lining for first home buyers. Picture: iStock
Mr Ryan said there was a silver lining for the areas where prices could continue to fall over the next few years.
“The typical home is getting cheaper, albeit smaller. That will be a good thing for first-home buyers who want to get into these areas.”
NSW: BOTTOM FIVE (HOUSES)
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• Redfern
Postcode: 2016
Current median: $1,560,000
Five-year change: -2.2 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,526,000
Price drop: $34,000
• Alexandria
Postcode: 2015
Current median: $1,655,000
Five-year change: -2.0 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,622,000
Price drop: $33,000
• Sylvania Waters
Postcode: 2224
Current median: $1,900,000
Five-year change: 0 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,900,000
Price drop: $0
• Surry Hills
Postcode: 2010
Current median: $1,843,000
Five-year change: 2.4 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,886,000
Price drop: n/a
• Richmond
Postcode: 2753
Current median: $810,000
Five-year change: 6.9 per cent
Median in 2028: $866,000
Price drop: n/a
NSW: BOTTOM FIVE (UNITS)
• Haymarket
Postcode: 2000
Current median: $868,000
Five-year change: -16.6 per cent
Median in 2028: $724,000
Price drop: $144,000
• Harris Park
Postcode: 2150
Current median: $435,000
Five-year change: -16.3 per cent
Median in 2028: $364,000
Price drop: $71,000
• Paddington
Postcode: 2021
Current median: $780,000
Five-year change: -15.2 per cent
Median in 2028: $661,000
Price drop: $119,000
• Granville
Postcode: 2142
Current median: $480,000
Five-year change: -14.3 per cent
Median in 2028: $411,000
Price drop: $69,000
• Chippendale
Postcode: 2008
Current median: $725,000
Five-year change: -14.2 per cent
Median in 2028: $622,000
Price drop: $103,000
VICTORIA: BOTTOM FIVE (HOUSES)
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• Middle Park
Postcode: 3206
Current median: $2,433,000
Five-year change: -11.12 per cent
Median in 2028: $2,162,000
Price drop: $271,000
• Ivanhoe East
Postcode: 3079
Current median: $1,950,000
Five-year change: -7.91 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,796,000
Price drop: $154,000
• Hawthorn
Postcode: 3122
Current median: $2,445,000
Five-year change: -7.12 per cent
Median in 2028: $2,271,000
Price drop: $174,000
• South Melbourne
Postcode: 3205
Current median: $1,535,000
Five-year change: -4.10 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,472,000
Price drop: $63,000
• St Kilda
Postcode: 3182
Current median: $1,526,000
Five-year change: -3.42 per cent
Median in 2028: $1,474,000
Price drop: $52,000
Prices will drop in suburbs across the country. Picture: iStock
VICTORIA: BOTTOM FIVE (UNITS)
• Maidstone
Postcode: 3012
Current median: $490,000
Five-year change: -12.50 per cent
Median in 2028: $429,000
Price drop: $61,000
• Essendon North
Postcode: 3041
Current median: $385,000
Five-year change: -12.50 per cent
Median in 2028: $337,000
Price drop: $48,000
• Windsor
Postcode: 3181
Current median: $538,000
Five-year change: -12.42 per cent
Median in 2028: $471,000
Price drop: $67,000
• Kensington
Postcode: 3031
Current median: $455,000
Five-year change: -9.90 per cent
Median in 2028: $410,000
Price drop: $45,000
• Wantirna South
Postcode: 3152
Current median: $507,000
Five-year change: -9.10 per cent
Median in 2028: $461,000
Price drop: $46,000
QUEENSLAND: BOTTOM FIVE (HOUSES)
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• Marian
Postcode: 4753
Current median: $480,000
Five-year change: 7.87 per cent
Median in 2028: $518,000
Price drop: n/a
• Biloela
Postcode: 4715
Current median: $283,000
Five-year change: 8.65 per cent
Median in 2028: $307,000
Price drop: n/a
• Rasmussen
Postcode: 4815
Current median: $320,000
Five-year change: 12.28 per cent
Median in 2028: $359,000
Price drop: n/a
• Bohle Plains
Postcode: 4817
Current median: $450,000
Five-year change: 12.50 per cent
Median in 2028: $506,000
Price drop: n/a
• The Range
Postcode:
Current median: $440,000
Five-year change: 13.70 per cent
Median in 2028: $500,000
Price drop: n/a
QUEENSLAND: BOTTOM FIVE (UNITS)
• South Brisbane
Postcode: 4101
Current median: $544,000
Five-year change: -9.33 per cent
Median in 2028: $493,000
Price drop: $51,000
• Fortitude Valley
Postcode: 4006
Current median: $410,000
Five-year change: -7.92 per cent
Median in 2028: $378,000
Price drop: $32,000
• Hamilton
Postcode: 4007
Current median: $505,000
Five-year change: -4.72 per cent
Median in 2028: $481,000
Price drop: $24,000
• North Ward
Postcode: 4810
Current median: $313,000
Five-year change: -2.34 per cent
Median in 2028: $305,000
Price drop: $8000
• Brisbane City
Postcode: 4000
Current median: $505,000
Five-year change: -1.20 per cent
Median in 2028: $499,000
Price drop: $6000
It’s bad news for investors in certain areas. Picture: iStock
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: BOTTOM FIVE (HOUSES)
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• Woodside
Postcode: 5244
Current median: $508,000
Five-year change: 9.73 per cent
Median in 2028: $557,000
Price drop: n/a
• Clare
Postcode: 5453
Current median: $368,000
Five-year change: 10.53 per cent
Median in 2028: $406,000
Price drop: n/a
• Port Augusta
Postcode: 5700
Current median: $225,000
Five-year change: 12.50 per cent
Median in 2028: $253,000
Price drop: n/a
• Roxby Downs
Postcode: 5725
Current median: $280,000
Five-year change: 21.74 per cent
Median in 2028: $341,000
Price drop: n/a
• Kurralta Park
Postcode: 5037
Current median: $707,000
Five-year change: 24.60 per cent
Median in 2028: $880,000
Price drop: n/a
SOUTH AUSTRALIA: BOTTOM FIVE (UNITS)
• Adelaide
Postcode: 5000
Current median: $465,000
Five-year change: 3.13 per cent
Median in 2028: $480,000
Price drop: n/a
• Port Lincoln
Postcode: 5606
Current median: $320,000
Five-year change: 10.34 per cent
Median in 2028: $353,000
Price drop: n/a
• North Adelaide
Postcode: 5006
Current median: $503,000
Five-year change: 11.22 per cent
Median in 2028: $560,000
Price drop: n/a
• Bowden
Postcode: 5007
Current median: $491,000
Five-year change: 15.39 per cent
Median in 2028: $567,000
Price drop: n/a
• Mawson Lakes
Postcode: 5095
Current median: 340,000
Five-year change: 17.24 per cent
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Median in 2028: $399,000
Price drop: n/a